tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28755195.post6391907424991153783..comments2023-09-25T04:26:51.568-06:00Comments on The Barefoot Bum: Real microeconomics (demand shocks)Larry Hamelinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08788697573946266404noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28755195.post-6368367211603615872011-12-28T03:01:57.026-07:002011-12-28T03:01:57.026-07:00(And, of course, I mean "real" in this c...(And, of course, I mean "real" in this context in contrast to "nominal", not in contrast to "imaginary".)Larry Hamelinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08788697573946266404noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28755195.post-74615558054129830872011-12-28T03:01:18.140-07:002011-12-28T03:01:18.140-07:00It will indeed take several decades to implement a...It will indeed take several decades to implement alternative energy sources. In the <i>meantime</i>, yes, we will have to rely on oil. But in the <i>end</i>, after decades of rebuilding our infrastructure, we will no longer need oil.<br /><br />Oil is going to become progressively more expensive, both in real terms (it will require more abstract labor time to extract and refine each barrel of oil) as well as nominal terms (those "owning" oil will attempt to extract more surplus labor from the rest of the economy), but it is precisely these price pressures that will provide an incentive to develop alternatives.<br /><br />It is certainly the case that dependence on oil and avoidance of alternatives could become a <i>political</i> priority. We could choose to allocate more and more surplus labor to the owners of oil, and we could hardly expect the owners of oil to invest aggressively in alternatives. But that is a political problem, not an economic problem, and certainly not a <i>real</i> economic problem.Larry Hamelinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08788697573946266404noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28755195.post-7649729395519665942011-12-28T02:08:08.628-07:002011-12-28T02:08:08.628-07:00What you seem not to have considered, Larry, is th...What you seem not to have considered, Larry, is that our entire economy is based on the consumption of fossil fuels; indeed, the transportation industry (upon which all other industries depend) cannot at present function without them. To capture enough solar energy to equal the amount of energy currently derived from fossil fuels will require completely different infrastructure and a new electrical grid; making those changes will demand huge inputs of fossil fuels, primarily oil. There's also a time factor involved; legislating, planning, engineering and design, innovating, fabricating, assembly and construction--all of these take time--and will probably take several decades to fully implement. In the meantime, we rely on fossil fuels to deliver the bulk of our energy needs. So, yeah, in the end it still comes down to oil.Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09974356693812650266noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28755195.post-20515253156306071502011-12-27T18:59:34.927-07:002011-12-27T18:59:34.927-07:00Bah. The old oil bugaboo. Pure bullshit. There'...Bah. The old oil bugaboo. Pure bullshit. There's a ton of free energy falling on the Earth (well, half of it) every day. All we need is manpower to harness it, and lo! we have 14 million people un- or under-employed. Think real, Phil, not nominal.Larry Hamelinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08788697573946266404noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28755195.post-76840295897343483992011-12-27T18:55:34.390-07:002011-12-27T18:55:34.390-07:00". . . we have to predict, as best we can, no...". . . we have to predict, as best we can, not only what we're short of now, but what we'll be short of — and how short we'll be — in the future."<br /><br /><br />In the end it all comes down to oil; the short answer to how short we'll be is "very."Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09974356693812650266noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28755195.post-16384185207290838792011-12-27T16:09:29.371-07:002011-12-27T16:09:29.371-07:00Thanks, Scott.Thanks, Scott.Larry Hamelinhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08788697573946266404noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-28755195.post-61756601511881702192011-12-27T14:35:10.688-07:002011-12-27T14:35:10.688-07:00Larry, saw not many have commented lately.
Wanted...Larry, saw not many have commented lately.<br /><br />Wanted to let you know we're still out here reading.<br /><br />Keep up the good work and hope you and yours are having a nice holiday season.Scott M.noreply@blogger.com