Sunday, August 04, 2019

Baker's dozen

A Baker’s Dozen of Reasons Not to Worry about Government Debt

Real-economy arguments for more public borrowing:
  1. The economy generally operates below potential
  2. There are long run forces pushing down demand
  3. Potential output is mismeasured; we are still well below it
  4. Recessions and jobless recoveries have occurred repeatedly in past, will occur again in the future
  5. Monetary policy is not effective at maintaining full employment
  6. It’s hard to ramp up public spending quickly in recession
  7. The costs of getting demand wrong are not symmetrical
  8. Weak demand may have permanent effects on potential output

Financial arguments for more public borrowing:
  1. With low interest rates, debt does not snowball
  2. There is good reason to think interest rates will remain low
  3. With hysteresis, higher public borrowing can pay for itself
  4. Federal debt is an important asset for financial markets
  5. Federal debt is an important asset for the rest of the world

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