Thursday, May 03, 2007

I told you so

Update: 6 May 07 The Washington Post story which forms the premise of this post appears to be substantially false.

I hate* to say, "I told you so," but I told you so.

House sustains veto of troop-withdrawal:
Democratic leaders have indicated that a new bill will likely drop withdrawal timelines, but will include benchmarks [bullshit alert!] for the Iraqi government -- measures that are likely to win the support of some Republicans [well duh!].

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., on Tuesday night said Democrats were willing to work with Bush and Republicans, "but if the president thinks that by vetoing this bill, he will stop us from working to change the direction of this war [from Iraq to Iran], he is mistaken." [emphasis and cynical asides added]

When this miserable piece of Democratic cowardice first passed the House, I said:
Bush is going to veto the supplemental. He's given us ample evidence that he doesn't give a rat's ass for public opinion. Bush is going to end up getting exactly what he wants. He knows now he can hold out for a "clean" supplemental, and he will. And he'll get it, too, wait and see.
I also said:
It's bullshit first because of the 3/4 cake paradox: If I (a "reasonable" person) suggest dividing the cake in half, an my opponent demands the whole cake, the "split the difference" principle entails that he gets 3/4 of the cake. The next time, he'll demand the whole cake again, and we'll split the difference at 5/8. The "reasonable" person ends up with just a sliver.

This is Negotiation 101: You never start with a compromise, no matter how "fair" or "reasonable" you might think it. You start off asking for everything and make your opponent fight for a compromise.

The Democrats started off by asking for half the cake (more like a quarter). Bush knows he can hold out for more, and these spineless morons are going to give it to him.

Mark my words: The war in Iraq persists through 2008, expanding into Iran. The Democratic party wins a narrow congressional and presidential victory in 2008. The Republicans Swiftboat, Whitewater and Lewinsky the Democrats like crazy. Nazi mothercousin-fucker Giuliani "wins" (can you say "Florida"? Bush v. Gore?) in 2012 and it's AmeriKKKa Über Alles.

You think I'm paranoid and hysterical. Keep on thinking that; I'll see you in Gitmo.

*Actually, I love to say, "I told you so."

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